Winter 2003 - The Bush Administration

Winter 2003 - The Bush Administration

Economic Meltdown
by Jessica Stahl
Photos by Photographer

The beginning of the 2002-03 ski-season was disappointing for local winter-sports enthusiasts. At the Mt. Baker Ski Area, warm days and rain melted patches into the slopes, exposing dirt and gravel beneath. On a Sunday in January, only a few determined skiers and snowboarders took to the slopes, willing to ride out the poor conditions — conditions that could become commonplace in the future.

By the end of the century, the Pacific Northwest could lose between 63 percent and 87 percent of its spring snow-pack to global warming, according to the 2002 U.S. Climate Action Report. This loss would be preceded by a 1,500 foot rise in freezing levels by as early as 2040.

"That would bum me out," said Mark Belles, a Washington native and winner of the 1999 Powder Pig Award. "I’m not excited to hear information like that."

The Powder Pig, an unofficial award created by Bellingham local Michael Jackson, recognizes one of the season’s most enthusiastic skiers. Belles’ Powder Pig Award is on display in Milano’s restaurant in Glacier, Wash. What distinguishes Belles from the award’s other winners, however, is the year he won it: 1999.

Mt. Baker Ski Area set a world record for the most snowfall in a single season in 1999 with 1,140 inches, or 95 feet. Duncan Howat, owner of the ski area for the past 35 years, said ski area employees worked long hours that year digging tunnels through the snow to allow access to the chair lifts.

The heavy loads of snow also increased the number of lift tickets sold at the ski area. Howat said the number of visitors to the area increased by 15 percent.

The unprecedented amounts of snow made 1999 a profitable year for the ski area, but Washington’s heavy snowfalls are also a key component in the success of the entire state’s economy. Now, global warming threatens this natural source of economic wealth.

In the winter, snow accumulates in Washington’s mountains, storing large amounts of water. Later, during the dry summer months, snow-melt feeds the region’s streams and rivers. This water is the foundation for cheap hydroelectric power, irrigation, forest fire prevention and healthy salmon runs. Global warming could affect all of these areas by reducing the amount of available water.

"This is not something we’re speculating on seeing in the future, we’re seeing it now," said Philip Mote, lead author for the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington. "I’m surprised to see how much our snow-packs have already shrunk over the last 50 years."

Mote’s research has revealed 30 percent reductions in snow-packs during a time span when the PNW saw little change in precipitation levels. These data indicate that the changes in snow-packs are due to increased temperature, not low levels of precipitation.

According to the 2002 U.S. Climate Action Report, emissions from human activities — primarily from burning fossil fuels — are partly responsible for this temperature increase. The report says global warming will have costly effects on human health, the environment and the economy.

Carbon dioxide is one of the gases that contributes to global warming. While on the campaign trail, President George W. Bush said he hoped to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

"With the help of Congress, environmental groups and industry, we will require all power plants to meet clean air standards in order to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, mercury and carbon dioxide within a reasonable period of time," he said.

Since then, Bush has shifted his position.

In March 2001, Bush withdrew the United States from the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to levels below those of 1990. The Kyoto Protocol was drafted in 1997 in response to growing international concern about global warming. The following year was the hottest year on record since 1860 and 2002 was the second hottest year in the same period.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the United States would have been required to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. Bush said he believes that requirement would have "severely damaged the United States economy."

Hart Hodges is a professor of economics at Western Washington University and a former Natural Resource Damage Assessment Economist for the Department of the Interior. He said he disagrees with Bush’s suggestions that the costs of complying with the Kyoto Protocol are not economically viable.

"The Kyoto Protocol could look scary, but in the end it wouldn’t be nearly as expensive to comply with as people think," Hodges said. "People are focusing too much on short run costs and believing exaggerated figures."

In 1997, Hodges conducted research on the cost of complying with various environmental regulations, including permissible levels of asbestos exposure, the 1978 Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, and United States industries consumption of CFCs.

"Usually, the actual cost of compliance was orders of magnitude lower than projected," Hodges said. "Complying with regulation in some cases resulted in a net gain to the company, not a loss. Pollution is inefficiency.

"Things could be very expensive if you don’t respond (to global warm-ing). We shouldn’t compare compliance cost with doing nothing."

Bush also argued that the Kyoto Protocol would have resulted in billions of dollars in industry losses and the elimination of nearly 5 million American jobs. Mote said that job losses caused by the 1970 Clean Air Act serve as an example of what could be expected under the Kyoto Protocol.

"6,793 coal miners claimed benefits under the Clean Air Act Amendment," Mote said. "Even in coal communities, most places were diverse enough to absorb those losses."

Mote estimated that compliance with the Kyoto Protocol would cause the loss of 10,000 to 30,000 jobs over the span of a decade.

"Boeing does that in the space of a year," Mote said.

Environmental supervisor at British Petroleum’s Cherry Point Refinery near Blaine, Wash., Liz Daly said reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at BP have not resulted in the loss of any jobs. BP has decreased their emissions of greenhouse gases to 10 percent below 1990 levels, and said it has plans to further their reductions.

"BP supports the greenhouse gas reduction," Daly said. "Anytime you increase your energy efficiency … you certainly have less expense."

In a statement issued on Feb. 12, 2003, Bush discussed the difficulties presented by global warming and maintaining the economy.

"Underpinning our approach to climate change is an understanding that meeting this long-term challenge requires policies that recognize that sustained economic growth is an essential part of the solution," Bush said. "Policies that undermine the health of our economy would only hamper America’s ability to develop and deploy new energy technologies and invest in energy efficiency and productivity improvements."

Hodges said he disagrees.

"You can go around that circle in the exact opposite direction," Hodges said. "Investment in energy efficient technology is a source of economic development."

Patrick Mazza, research director of Climate Solutions in Seattle, said clean energy investment is good for the economy because it creates entirely new industries. He said Climate Solutions intends to help create a Silicon Valley of clean technology industries in the PNW.

The CIG, formed in 1995, focuses its studies on climate change in the PNW. Using results from seven different climate models, the CIG predicts that by as early as 2040 the PNW will experience a temperature increase of 3.1 to 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that earth’s average temperature could rise by 3 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100 years — the most rapid change in 10 millennia.

The IPCC said that economic development depends on maintenance of healthy ecosystems. To understand how loss of snow-pack would affect the PNW’s economy, it helps to recall previous years of drought.

During warm winters, less snow accumulates and therefore less is stored in the mountains for summer use. For example, the drought during the summer of 2001 followed a winter of little snowfall. Industry, agriculture, salmon and forests all felt the drought’s influence, according to the Washington state Department of Ecology.

"If we don’t do something about (global warming) a lot of things we think are important won’t matter," Mazza said. "All around the world action is underway. The U.S. may be the last place to get it."

During his 2000 presidential campaign, Bush promised to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. Now, he has proposed using "emission intensity" targets to achieve reductions rather than setting fixed target levels for power plant emissions. This approach allows carbon emissions to increase along with economic growth. The plan allows indefinite increases in emissions as long as the rate of economic growth outpaces the emissions increases.

"It’s kind of a silly way to pose it," Mote said. "It is a very slight reduction from business as usually. It’s a goal, not a commitment."

The Natural Resources Defense Council said that Bush’s plan simply calls for continuing the status quo. The plan forecasts a 38 percent increase in gross domestic product over the next decade. This means emissions could increase by 14 percent from 2002 to 2012 — the same increase measured over the last decade.

Bush also emphasized further research on climate change as part of his global warming policy. In December 2002, senior officials of the Bush administration said that numerous uncertainties remain about global warming’s cause and effects.

"More studies on the basis of uncertainties as an excuse to avoid action is simply unconscionable," Mazza said.

Mote said he is not convinced the Bush administration is trying to avoid action, but did criticize their plan. He said it is not possible to remove all uncertainty.

"The plan focuses on reducing uncertainty, (but) study of the problem doesn’t necessarily reduce uncertainty," Mote said. "It’s a bit misdirected to embark upon a plan to reduce uncertainty."

Mote said the numbers generated by climate models 35 years ago are still used today. What has changed is the level of understanding and insight into what these numbers mean.

"Earth’s systems are subject to disproportionate responses to seemingly small increases in temperature," Mazza said. "We really are playing Russian roulette. The claims that climate would change slowly and gradually (are) unfounded. Each decade we go on this greenhouse gas course is putting another bullet in the Russian roulette chamber."

Some, however, argue that right now a growing economy and population mandate increased greenhouse gas emissions.

William O’Keefe, president of the George C. Marshall Institute and former petroleum industry executive, said that right now, there are no viable alternatives to coal, oil and gas, which provide close to 90 percent of the United State’s energy.

"That is like telling an alcoholic there is no viable alternative to whiskey," Mazza said. "We know greenhouse gases are wreaking havoc with the planet’s climatic systems, so we need to get off the fossil (fuel) binge."

He also said exploring alternatives to fossil fuels could have benefits beyond a reduction in greenhouse gases.

"Rather than ripping ancient biomass from the earth, we need to live off our current solar budget," Mazza said. "More diverse energy sources will be more stable (and) more resistant to terrorist attack."

He listed wind-power, solar energy, fuel cells, bio-fuels, geothermal, wave and tidal energies and advanced efficiency technologies as available energy alternatives.

"Viable alternatives are within reach, and vital to our future," Mazza said.

These alternatives could also help secure the future of the PNW by reducing the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere. The NRDC states that lowering carbon emissions could help solve the threat of global warming. For now, however, the PNW faces a future hinted at by the 2001 drought.

"If anything, we’re on a faster track to reduced snow-pack than I expected," Mote said. "It’s hard to know where things will stand 100 years from now."

Sitting in his lodge at the Mt. Baker Ski Area, Howat said he is not familiar with the Bush administration’s policies regarding global warming.

"I study the weather, but maybe I look at it from too short a time span," Howat said. "The problem with a lot of people is they only think about their own future. I’ve got my daughters who work here, and I’m worried about their long term success."

Mazza said that everybody is part of the problem; consumers must make a choice to become part of the solution.

"We need a cultural change that is similar to changes we’ve seen in domestic abuse, inside smoking and drunk driving," he said. "Global warming has the potential to be a great teacher to us. If we choose to buy a big SUV, we’re choosing something that has a negative impact on the environment."

Solving the difficulties presented by global warming will require the United States to act as a whole in making these choices. Mote said he has confidence in such an undertaking.

"I’m personally optimistic that American ingenuity is up to the task," Mote said.

Mazza said that for him, it’s a leap of faith.

"If I didn’t think we could do it, I wouldn’t be here," he said.

Winter 2003 - The Bush Administration

Economic Meltdown by Jessica Stahl Photos by Photographer

Economic Meltdown
by Jessica Stahl
Photos by Photographer